Demographic situation

In comparison with the Russian Federation and the Siberian Federal district in the forecast period the Republic of Buryatia will preserve more favorable sex and age structure of the population and higher level of birth rate. At the same time the process of gradual increase of a share of the population older than able-bodied age will begin.
The process of demographic growing old of the population is directly reflected in stability of  high death rate of the population. The approximate script is observed in Bichursky and in Kabansky districts, where the death rate is much higher than the republican one (19,6 and 19,3 of  dead per 1000 people accordingly compared with 15,3 in the republic).
Simultaneously the number and density of children will continue to decrease in the structure of the population. Unlike the Russian Federation the density of  children is stabilized on higher mark - 22-20 % (in the whole  country the predicted parameter is 15 %).
The period of 2003-2006 is characterized by the maximum number of able-bodied  population (up to 63 % from all population), the gain will come to the end in 2007, then irreversible reduction of able-bodied population will begin, and first of all, citizens of age group  from 16 to 20 years old.
The general positive change of  demographic situation in the republic is the decrease in rates of reduction of  population.
During 2006 - 2008 the number of population will reduce up to 14,9 thousand people by the 1 variant and by 13,9 thousand person by the 2 variant, compared to 16,0 thousand people in 2002 - 2005.
This process is promoted by realization of the Concept of demographic development of the Republic of Buryatia for the period till 2010. The factor of its maximum realization is reflected in the second variant of the forecast in 2006 - 2008.

Gross regional output.

The growth of GRP in 2006-2008, as well as in previous years, in both variants of the forecast is determined by growth of home and abroad demands for goods and  services produced in the Republic of Buryatia. The calculation of volumes of GRP in view of expected increase in home and abroad demands allows to predict annual rates of its gain in 2006-2008 on the level 6,7 - 6,8 % on  the first variant and 8,2 - 8,5 % - on the second variant. On the optimistic variant of the forecast in 2008 the GRP of the Republic of Buryatia  will reach 127,5 billion roubles, that will make 134,9 % to the level of 2004 (in the comparable prices).

Determining factors of growth of GRP will be the growth of industrial production, agriculture, construction, transport.  Share of the added cost created by these branches, in total volume of GRP will be 56,0 — 56,5% in 2008.

Industry

Positive factors of growth are considered to be favorable development of trade, economic and political cooperation of Russia, decrease in rates of inflation, growth of well-being of the population, expansion of home demands and capacities of a home market, creation of favorable conditions for business activity, growth of investment activity, input of new capacities, diversification of manufacture etc.
As negative factors are considered delay of process of import-replacing,  high degree of physical and moral obsolescence of main funds, growth of prices for production of natural monopolies (energy carriers, railway transportation).
In 2006 - 2008 the gain of volumes of industrial output will make 18 % on the first variant and 24 % - on the second.
Enterprises of fuel industry (128,0 - 129,0 %), machine building and metal processing (129,5 - 137,2 %), energy (118 - 120,9 %) will develop at outstripping rates in comparison with the level of 2005.
Significant growth of volumes of manufacture in fuel industry is predicted in connection with putting into operation the last turn of Tugnuysky coal section, reconstruction of acting coal sections of Open Company "Buryatugol", that will allow to increase coal mining up to 6 million tons and  to increase a share of manufacture of own coal up to 30 %.
Machine-building in the near future will develop in the following way: investment projects on manufacturing a new model of helicopters in Open Society «Ulan-Udensky aviation factory» will be realized; manufacture of electric motors to a movable train in Open Society « Plant Electromachina » will be explored; laser technologies in manufacturing steel bridge designs in Open Society "Ulan-Udestalmost" will be introduced.
The organizational actions on spreading cooperation relations between the organizations will be carried out, i.e. between Open Society " Electromachina ", State Unitary Enterprise «Locomotive repair plant of the East-Siberian Railroad», Open Society « Ulan-Udensky aviation factory », Open Society « Ulan-Udensky instrument-making association ».
In electric power industry by 2007 it is supposed to put into operation the turbine ?6 in Thermal power station - 1, the investment project on construction two power units in Ulan-Udensky Thermal Power station - 2 will be realized, construction of 4 small hydroelectric power stations in Kurumkansky, Barguzinsky and Dzhidinsky districts are planned.
Realization of all above mentioned activities will allow to increase volume of producing  electric power by 111-120 %.
The gain of volumes of production in food and milling flour industries by 103-112 % will be provided for the account of creations of integrated structures on manufacturing and processing meat, milk and grain, realization of investment projects in Open Society «Ulan-Udensky macaroni factory», Joint-Stock Company " þËÐÞ ", Open Society " Buryatmyasoprom ", Open Society "Milk", Open Society «Zaudinsky Milling Flour plant » and works on spreading manufacture in liquer and vodka enterprise of Open Company " Kommersant " will be continued.
Nonferrous metallurgy is planned  intensively to develop the Ozyornoe polymetallic deposit, working out the uranium deposit of Open Society "Khiagda", introduction of new technologies on deep extraction of fine and thin gold from looses in Open Society «The Tsypikansky Mine», in total it will allow to increase production in the branch by 6-6,8 % to the level of 2005.
The gain of volumes of production of ferrous metallurgy by 45 - 95 % will be provided for the account of construction and commissioning capacities in ore-dressing combine of quartzites of Open Company «Chulbonsky GOK ».
Wood and timber-processing branches are planned to introduce careful processing of timber in Open Society « Baikal wood company », that will allow to increase storage of timber by 240 thousand cube per one year.
Joint-Stock Company "Spetsmebel" is planning to introduce new technologies in manufacturing wood-fiber plates, window, door blocks, in manufacturing furniture for offices and educational institutions.
The industrial complex on manufacturing the trading - exhibition equipment and office furniture for  population (Open Company « ëé Postulate ») will be completed and put into operation.

Agriculture

The network of rural credit cooperative societies is planned to spread in the near future, that will  allow the population to facilitate access to credit resources. More than 80 % of gross output of agriculture will be made in small-scale sector and private farmsteads. In structure of agricultural production the share of farmers will make 2,9 %, personal farmsteads - 81 %.

Forecasting took into consideration structure and peculiarities of manufacturing in every sector of agriculture, measures on restoration of resource and scientific potential of agricultural and industrial complex, improving financial, material and technical support, transition to a new system of taxation.

The growth of volumes of manufacture will be provided due to updating park of agricultural machines, rational use of arable land, increase of standard of farming, attraction of investments into  agricultural production. The work on raising productive qualities of cattle and birds, introduction of effective "know-how" of forages and systems of feeding, technical equipment in farms and cattle-breeding complexes will be continued. According to the developed forecast total gathering of grain in all categories of farms will reach 185 thousand tons. Production of grain and eggs will be still concentrated in large commodity sector, production of potatoes, vegetables, meat and milk - in personal sector. The volume of production of agriculture in 2008 will increase by 6-12 % to the level of 2005.

Transport, communications.

In 2006-2008 the increase of volumes of passengers’ and loading transportation by 2 - 4 % annually is expected for the account of updating of bus fleet, reconstruction of international airport of Ulan-Ude, reconstruction of boundary station Naushki, development of switchyard ðaltsy, construction of a new terminal in the station "Zaudinsky" and creation of the suburban passenger company in Ulan-Ude.

Much attention will be paid to the technical status of highway system, in 2005 - 2008 about 300 km of highways are planned to construct and reconstruct.
In rural areas of the republic wire broadcasting is going to be replaced by  wireless radio VHF - CM broadcasting, that will allow to embrace by broadcasting 100% of the population in rural areas.
For development of social sphere and engineering infrastructure of village within the framework of realization of the republican aimed program « Social development of the village for 2003 - 2006 and till 2010» the reconstruction and upgrading of telephone systems of general purpose will be conducted, that will allow to increase the number of users by 2008 up to 32 %.

Small business.

Rates of growth of volumes of production made by small enterprises will range from 121,0 % in 2006 up to 122,0 % in 2008 in the comparable prices on the first variant and from 122,0 % up to 123,5 % - on the second.
The gain of output will take place both due to increase of average number of working people in small enterprises and due to growth of labour productivity.
There will be higher rates of growing output in industry and construction  than services rendered in trade and public catering. The tendency to increasing a number of individual businessmen without status of a legal person whose activity is not provided by this form, will proceed.

Investments.

The forecast of investments into a fixed capital for 2006-2008 has been developed proceeding from a rating of a developed situation in coordination with the Federal addressed investment program of the Russian Federation, federal and republican aimed programs in view of conditions and factors influencing dynamics and volumes of investments into a fixed capital.

The volume of investment resources in 2008 is predicted on the level 16,5 billion roubles (by 2 variant), that will make 139,0 % to the level of 2005.

Since 2006 the growth of investments into the following branches is expected: industry (rate of growth in 2006 will make 101-105 %),  agriculture (138 %), transport (110 %), construction (111%), housing and communal services (in 2 times).

Predicted volumes of investments into real sector of economy of the republic will prevail over investments into social sphere.

The construction of the last turn of the Tugnuysky coal section, Ulan-Udensky TPS-2, Khiagdinsky uranium mine, ore dressing combine of quartzites, modernisation of Open Society  “Ulan-Udensky macaroni factory”, Open Society “Buryatmyasoprom”, Open Society "þËÐÞ" will proceed. It is necessary to note, that in previous years the structure of investments is displaced to the side of  objects of industrial purpose and there is a transition from investments into a working capital to modernisation of the enterprises. Thus, nowadays, circulation of the capital is reduced, but the reserve for growth of an industrial output in the nearest years is created together with achievement of full loading of updating capacities. So, the construction of objects of infrastructure in the Ozyorny deposit of polymetals is planned to begin since 2006.

Rates of growth of investments into the industry are expected in 2006 - 105 % (by 2 variant), in 2007 - 122,8 %, in 2008 - 104,4 %.

In electric power industry rates of growth of investments are expected at the level of 104-105 % per one year.

In the considered period rates of growth of investments into nonferrous metallurgy will make 162% in 2006, in 2007 - 152,0 %, in 2008 - 103,6 %.

In machine-building rates of growth of investments in 2005 are expected at the level of 101-102 % per one year.

In industry of building materials rates of growth of investments will be 146,9 % in 2006, in 2007 - 130,5 %, in 2008 - 122,0 %.

The development of mortgage construction, proceeding construction of Ulan-Udensky garbage-processing factory, wide opportunities of individual construction, and also the beginning of construction of objects of infrastructure of a mineral-raw complex since 2006 will allow to expect the growth of investments into construction. In 2006 rates of growth of investments will be 111,9 % (576,2 million roubles), in 2007 - 111,0 % (690,8 million roubles), in 2008 - 114,8 % (843,9 million roubles).

Rates of growth of investments, 267,0 % in 2006, 179,8 % in 2007 and 117,5 % in 2008 for construction of objects of public health service, physical training, sports and social security are predicted due to construction of the objects included in the programs.

According to the forecast the main source of investment in a fixed capital will remain own means of enterprises and organizations which share in 2008 is determined more than 40 % from total number of investments or 7,7 billion roubles. From them 5,7 billion roubles (86 %) are supposed to invest due to depreciation charges, and 0,9 billion roubles - due to the profit.

The volume of means of the federal budget will make in 2008 about 909,9 billion roubles. Means of the republican budget and budgets of the municipal formations directed to the investments, annually grow and will make 1187,6 billion roubles or 7,2 % from total amount of investments in 2008. Means of the population - the individual builders providing introduction of the major share of habitation in republic, together with means of enterprises and budgetary fund, play an important role in investment activity and in 2008  they are predicted in volume of 1200,9 million roubles, that will make 120,6 % from the level of 2005.

The volume of contract works according to the forecast for 2008 will make 8,2-9,3 billion roubles and will increase in comparison with 2005 by 17,5 %.

In 2008 fixed capital will be commissioned due to all sources of financing for the sum of 16,1 billion roubles, liquidation of  fixed capital in 2008 will make 2,9 billion roubles.

The basic part of updating and leaving are expected in the branches making  goods, as there is the highest degree of deterioration - 48,6 % in total in these branches, including industry - 49,7 %,  construction - 49,8 %,  forestry - 61,9 %.

The total cost of a fixed capital of branches of economy in full registration cost by the end of 2008 will reach 248,3 billion roubles.

Financial balance

The financial balance has been developed proceeding from basic parameters of the forecast of social and economic development of the Republic of Buryatia for 2006-2008 in view of the main directions in budgetary and tax policy and measures on strengthening financial potential adopted by the Government of the republic.

Incomes of financial balance for 2006 are predicted at the level of 30,4 billion roubles (109,5 % to 2005); from them own incomes will make 22,8 billion roubles (on the first variant) with growth of 107 % to 2005 and 23,3 billion roubles  (on the second variant) with growth of 110 %.

The basic sources of formation of a profitable part of financial balance are:
State finances (tax and non- tax incomes) - 8,8 (on the first variant), 9,0 billion roubles (on the second) growth by 111-113 % by the year 2005.

Means of out-of-budget funds - 6,9 billion roubles (on the first variant), 7,1 billion roubles (on the second) with growth by  8-11 %.

Means of the organizations (profit and amortization) - 6,4 billion roubles.

Social sphere remains a priority direction of financing. Its share is about 62 % of a total sum of charges of financial balance. Means of  enterprises directed to the investments, will make 19 % of charges, state investments - 6 %.

Deficiency of financial resources is caused by transferring of outlay powers from federal level to subjects of the Russian Federation and reduction of the size of financial help from the federal budget (from 6,9 billion roubles in 2004 up to 5,7 billion in 2005).

Work

Parameters of mid-annual number of  manpower and employment in the economy of the republic are formed on the basis of the data of the All-Russian population census of 2002 and the demographic forecast of a perspective number of population in 2006 - 2008, and also prognostic scripts of the development of branches in the economy of the republic.
The structure of employment of the population will not change, as significant changes in the structure of economy of republic in the predicted period  are not expected. The period  from 2006 to 2008 is favorable from the point of view of the offer of manpower. The increase in number of employed in the  economy will be caused by the demographic reasons -  gain of able-bodied age population, development of mining branches of economy, sphere of small business and prospective reduction of scales of informal employment of the population .

Standard living of the population.

The forecast of parameters of incomes and standard living of the population of the Republic of  Buryatia has been  made on the basis of the developed tendencies in social - labour sphere in view of aimed parameters of development in the  economy of the republic.

Under conditions of real growth of economy with rates not less than 6-8 % per one year and  rate of inflation in the consumer market, not exceeding considerably an average Russian level, rates of growth of real available incomes are expected at the  level of 106,7 % in 2005 up to 105,7-110,0 % by 2008.
Due to significant growth of a living wage in 2005 (because of raise of tariffs for housing-and-municipal services and prices in the consumer market) the level of poverty of the population in the republic will be reduced this year approximately by 3 items, and in the next years due to realization of measures on increase of employment and level of incomes of the population, reduction in the level of poverty by 2008 is expected up to 25 % by the first variant and up to 21 % by the second one.

Trade and public catering

Rates of growth of turnover of retail trade and public catering are predicted at the level of the average Russian one. Decrease in gain of turnover of retail trade  up to 107,3 % is expected by the year 2008,  that will make 48205,2 million roubles.

The gain of turnover of public catering during 2006-2008 is predicted at the level of 104,9-106,3 % under the condition of minor decrease during the predicted period of a price index and tariffs.

The turnover of retail trade in 2006 will make - 37091,1 million roubles (108 %), in 2007 - 42543,2 million roubles (107,8 %), in 2008 - 48205,2 million roubles (107,3 %).

The turnover of public catering in 2006 will make - 1467,6 million roubles (106,3 %), in 2007 - 1667,7 million roubles (106,3 %), in 2008 - 1872,0 million roubles (106,3 %). Density of turnover of public catering in the turnover of retail trade and public catering during the predicted period remains stable and makes 3,7-3,8 %.

Achievement of predicted rates of growth of turnover of retail trade and public catering is possible under the condition of higher gains of real available financial incomes. The level of security by trading areas will reach 230-240 sq.m per 1000 inhabitants by the year 2008, the share of the organized market will increase up to 83 - 85 % by 2008.

Paid services.

The dominating role in the formation of the market of services in 2006 will belong to transport services, communications and housing and communal services by 2008. Their share will be13,6 %  in transport services by 2008, in  communications - 17,1 %, in  housing and communal services - 33,2 %.

In 2006 - 2008 the increase in volumes of sanatorium treatment in average is expected by 7,5 %, that will be 294,4 million roubles  by 2008. It is connected to the introduction measures of social support to some categories of citizens (according to the Federal law after 22.08.2004 ? 122-FL) since January 1, 2005, which include granting preferential sanatorium treatment in a number of establishments of Buryatia.

Development of branches of social sphere

Providing aged and invalids (adults and children) by stationary establishments of social service will increase from 21,0 in 2005 counting upon 10 thousand people up to 23,6 in 2008.

In 2005-2008 it is planned to put into operation Ulan-Udensky boarding- school for mentally disabled children, a house - boarding school in Novaya Bryan in Zaigraevsky district, enlargement of the Ust-Barguzinsky, Dzhidinsky and Verkhnezhirimsky house - boarding schools. Owing to the demographic situation characterized by reduction of a number of children in the age  from 0 till 6 years old, the parameter of a number of pupils in secondary schools  is reduced.

In connection with reduction of number of graduates of comprehensive schools in the republic in 2005-2010, and also outflow of graduates of schools to the technical and high professional establishments, the plan of admission of students in vocational  schools decreases, so it is planned to   reduce a contingent of students in vocational schools and licea.

In 2006 — 2008 providing people with beds in hospitals  will make 103,6 - 103,8 counting upon 10 thousand population. So the plan includes putting into operation the surgical building of the republican clinical hospital after N.A.Semashko, a children's republican inpatient hospital, a maternity - pediatric building  in Kurumkansky CRH and a hospital of the Center of East medicine.
In addition to it, it is planned to increase admission of students in the Ulan-Udensky medical college, in Kyakhtinsky and Selenginsky vocational schools, that will allow to increase security by the average medical personnel from 103,2 people per 10 thousand population in 2004 up to 110 in 2008.

Environment protection.

400,3 million roubles are planned to allocate to environment protection in 2006, including means from the federal budget  -177,8 million roubles and  means from the republican and municipal budgets - 57,8 million roubles.

The plan of activities during the period 2006-2008 includes finishing  the construction of the protection v. Orot from harmful influence of springs Orot and Barun — Khunduy in the Kizhinginsky district, supporting of the coast of r. Irkut in the area of v. Shimki in the Tunkinsky district, the  protection of the v. Orlik from freshet waters of the river Oka in the Okinsky district, supporting the  shore of a gulf «Posolsky Sor» of the Baikal lake in Kabansky district, carrying out bank — supporting  works on the rivers Chikoy, Dzhida etc.

Within  frameworks of FAP« Economic and social development of the Far East and Transbaikalia in 1996-2005 till 2010 » there will be works on construction and reconstruction of a water-protection of underground waters, water purification of sewage in Ulan-Ude, construction of underground water-protection in v. Kamensk, Gusinoozyorsk, building of ranges TBO in v. Vydrino, Ust-Barguzin, t. Severobaykalsk, construction of range for burial place of toxic industrial wastes of Ulan-Ude, building of the garbage — processing  factory in Ulan-Ude will continue.

Tourism.

In 2006 the number of tourist arrivals from abroad will make 16,7 thousand people. In future volumes of entrance tourism will annually increase by 5,5 - 7,5 % and by 2008 the number of foreign visitors will be more than 19 thousand people.

From 2006 till 2008 the average annual gain of volumes of consumption tourist services by  foreign guests will grow from 18,5 % (1 variant) up to 21,2 % (2 variant) and under favorable conditions will increase up to 1454,8 thousand US dollars. 

The purposes of arrival of  Russian tourists are rest (42 %), business tourism (30 %), treatment and health improvement (17,2 %). According to the prognosis in 2006 the number of the Russian tourists will make 37,8 - 38,5 thousand people.

On condition of stable tendency of annual growth of a number of tourists in average by 5,5 % (1 variant) in 2008 this parameter will reach the number of  42 thousand people. Under favorable  circumstances (2 variant) the number of tourists in the republic from other Russian regions can increase up to 44 thousand people.

The structure of  tourist flow includes departure tourism, which is about 4 %.

In 2006 volumes of departure tourism will approximately be on 1 variant 710,9 thousand US dollars, on 2 variant - 759,1 thousand US dollars. In future this parameter will increase approximately in 2,5 times in 2008 in comparison with 2004.

The foreign trade activity.

Cooperation with the countries of Asian - Pacific region has a priority value in the system of foreign economic relations of the republic in 2006 and for the intermediate term period, its importance is defined by prospects in the field of export deliveries of aviation technical equipment, fuel and energy resources and production of timber-processing. The largest partners of republic in region will remain China (timber-processing), Japan (wood production, coal), Mongolia (foodstuffs, timber-processing). In addition to it, in near future our foreign trade partners will be a number of the countries of  Near and Middle East, Africa and Latin America, which are the main sale markets for the aviation technical equipment made in the republic.

In connection with change of an export policy of Open Society «The Selenginsky PPF», upgrading  of manufacture, gradual growth of export deliveries of cardboard is expected in the countries of CIS.
Increase in export to the European countries is not expected because of the limited nomenclature of the Buryat export and significant transport charges.

Export of the Republic of Buryatia in 2006 will make 345,2-362,3 million dollars with the growth to the level of 2004 by 1-6 %, import 31,0-31,7 million dollars with growth by 2-4 %. Physical volumes of deliveries of coal will increase by 14 %,  cardboard by 15 %, saw-timbers by 10-15 %, volumes of machine-building production by 5-7 %.

Variants of development of export are calculated in view of influence of  high degree of dependence on presence and volumes of export orders for the aviation equipment made by Open Society « Ulan-Udensky aviation factory » and also the foreign economic conjuncture on wood production.
By the first variant of the prognosis, if there is delay of rates of export of aviation equipment because of reduction of demands, decrease in efficiency of export because of growth of tariffs for energy carriers and transport simultaneously with strengthening of rouble, reasonable demands on wood production in the market of Chinese People's Republic - the annual gain of volumes of export is expected at the rate of 1-3 %.

In 2006 - 2007 by the second variant the annual gain of export is expected by 6-7 %, import by 4-5%. The gain of export will be provided due to increase in deliveries, saw-timbers (on the basis of commissioning new manufactures), cardboard, stone coal, aviation equipment. The dynamics of cost volumes of import will be influenced by the growth of supply of engineering equipment for the enterprises of food and timber-processing industry (mainly from the European countries), meat from Mongolia and Chinese People's Republic for industrial processing. Growth of export in 2008 will be  26 %, import  56 % to the level of 2004.